How Cold Is A Nuclear Winter

If you were one of the more than 10 million Americans receiving Parade magazine on October 30, 1983, you would have been confronted with a harrowing scenario. The Sunday news supplement's front cover featured an image of the world half-covered in gray shadows, dotted with white snow. This article marked the public's introduction to a concept that would drastically change the debate over nuclear war: "nuclear winter." The story detailed the previously unexpected consequences of nuclear war: prolonged dust and smoke, a precipitous drop in Earth's temperatures and widespread failure of crops, leading to deadly famine. According to the article, it wouldn't take both major nuclear powers firing all their weapons to create a nuclear winter. Even a smaller-scale war could destroy humanity as we know it. "We have placed our civilization and our species in jeopardy," the author concluded. "Fortunately, it is not yet too late. We can safeguard the planetary civilization and the human family if we so choose.

39;ve been involved in." That might be an understatement.

The article was frightening enough. But it was the author who brought authority and seriousness to the doomsday scenario: Carl Sagan. By 1983, Sagan was already popular and publicly visible in ways most scientists weren't. He was a charismatic spokesperson for science, particularly the exploration of the solar system by robotic probes. He hosted and co-wrote the PBS television series "Cosmos," which became the most-watched science program in history and made him a household name. His 1977 book, The Dragons of Eden, won the Pulitzer Prize. He was well-known enough to be parodied by Johnny Carson on "The Tonight Show" and Berkeley Breathed in the "Bloom County" comic strip. But with his Parade article, he risked puncturing that hard-won popularity and credibility. In the fallout from the article, he faced a barrage of criticism-not just from pro-nuclear conservatives, but also from scientists who reviewed him for leveraging his personal fame for advocacy. Sagan later called discussion surrounding nuclear winter following the article "perhaps the most controversial scientific debate I've been involved in." That might be an understatement. So the question is: What was a scientist doing getting involved in politics and writing about nuclear war in the popular presses in the first place?

The nuclear winter chapter of history began in the late 1970s, when a group of scientists-including Sagan-entered the nuclear arms fray. These weren't nuclear physicists or weapons experts: they studied the atmospheres of Earth and other planets, including dust storms on Mars and clouds on Venus. In 1980, paleontologist Luis Alvarez and his physicist father Walter presented evidence that an asteroid had hit Earth at the end of the Cretaceous Period. They argued that the impact had thrown so much dust and debris into the air that Earth was blanketed in shadow for an extended period, long enough to wipe out the last of the non-bird dinosaurs. If true, this hypothesis showed a way that a catastrophe in one location could have long-term effects on the entire planet. Sagan and his former students James Pollack and Brian Toon realized this work applied to climate change on Earth-as well as nuclear war. Along with meteorologists Tom Ackerman and Rich Turco, they used computer models and data collected by satellites and space probes to conclude that it wouldn't take a full-scale thermonuclear war to cause Earth's temperature to plummet. They found average global temperatures could drop between 15º and 25º Celsius, enough to plunge the planet into what they called "nuclear winter"-a deadly period of darkness, famine, toxic gases and subzero cold. The authors acknowledged the limitations of their model, including poor predictions for short-term effects on small geographical scales and the inability to predict changes in weather as opposed to climate. Nevertheless, their conclusion was chilling.

Making the danger of nuclear winter real to them, Sagan believed, would take more than science.

When combined with the prompt destruction from nuclear blast, fires, and fallout and the later enhancement of solar ultraviolet radiation due to ozone depletion, long-term exposure to cold, dark, and radioactivity could pose a serious threat to human survivors and to other species … The possibility of the extinction of Homo sapiens cannot be excluded. The nuclear winter paper was accepted for publication in the journal Science, where it was destined to reach millions of scientists and influence decades of future research. Known colloquially by the acronym "TTAPS" after its authors' last names, the academic article would be published on December 23, 1983. But in October, Sagan made the decision to announce his warning to the world using what amounted to a very unorthodox medium: the popular media. Sagan, like many at the time, believed nuclear war was the single greatest threat facing humanity. Others-including policymakers in the Reagan administration-believed a nuclear war was winnable, or at least survivable. Making the danger of nuclear winter real to them, Sagan believed, would take more than science. He would have to draw on both his public fame, media savvy and scientific authority to bring the what he saw as the true risk before the eyes of the public.

That meant a rearranging of personal priorities. According to Grinspoon, whose father, Lester, was a close friend of Sagan's and who knew all the authors (Pollack was his postdoctoral advisor), Sagan wasn't a major scientific contributor to the TTAPS paper, though he was intimately familiar with the research it is contained. However, the collaboration needed his high public profile to navigate the inevitable public controversy to come, in part because NASA was worried about political retaliation that might rebound on funding, Grinspoon writes in his book Earth in Human Hands. Toon, Ackerman and Pollack all worked at the NASA Ames Research Center. As Davidson notes, "Ames director Clarence A. Syvertson … Reagan Administration." So Pollack called up Sagan, who intervened and got Syvertson to drop his objections. Though his role in TTAPS was largely greasing the wheels, Sagan's prominence and Parade piece meant the public tended to associate nuclear winter with him alone.

We see no barriers of race or religion or country.

As Davidson's biography notes, Sagan was the one invited to debate nuclear winter before Congress in 1984. He was later invited by Pope John Paul II to discuss nuclear winter. And in 1988, he was mentioned by Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev in his meeting with Reagan as a major influence on ending proliferation. That meant people's personal feelings about Sagan colored their assessment of TTAPS. Unfortunately, it wasn't hard to attack such an outspoken messenger. Nuclear weapons are an expression of one side of our human character," Sagan wrote. "But there's another side. The same rocket technology that delivers nuclear warheads has also taken us peacefully into space. From that perspective, we see our Earth as it really is-a small and fragile and beautiful blue globe, the only home we have. We see no barriers of race or religion or country. We see the essential unity of our species and our planet.

Although her words are harsh, it is because she never sugar coated her words with her friends.

Scott Shelly ( Hangul:셸리 ) is one of the female protagonists in the webtoon. She begins a one-sided relationship with Jay at the start of the series but as the story progress they have a mutual crush on each other and as of chapter 378 they are in a relationship. Shelly is the only female member of the Humming Bird Crew. Because she stayed at England before coming to Korea her personality is perceived as very headstrong. She does not like it when people talk badly about her friends, especially Jay. Shelly also has a lot of stamina and strength, she can keep up with the group's pace when racing and can actually send people flying with her punch (Although that may be for comedic reasons) but never got into the street fights with the guys of the crew. When she was hit on in her first appearance on the series she refused with a lot of sass. Mia described her as someone who can confidently express her thoughts and feelings. Although her words are harsh, it is because she never sugar coated her words with her friends. And with Jay, Shelly is very clingy and flirtatious. She has very foreign features: pale skin, her eyes actually look more mint green in color than blue, blond wavy hair. It is known later in the series that she has a tattoo in the side of her arm near the wrist that reads out "temet nosce" or "Know Thyself". At school she wears her uniform usually without the red vest and both wears the skirt and pants.

Scooter girl 80s 80s style 80sanime anime animeart illustration manga newretro procreate retroanime She is often seen wearing high-end brand clothing, but also occasionally wearing street wear and tomboyish clothes. When riding her bike, she usually wears a jacket and helmet with the same color as her eyes or the Hummingbird crew's hood. She is tall, with long thin legs, a small waist and a bigger bust. Not much is known about Shelly, but it is established that she is from England and she requested to transfer to Sunny High School because of Jay. It was told in an early episode (Ep. 27) that she will be in Korea for one semester. Shelly is the granddaughter of Sunny High School's principal, Nick. When Shelly was a kid, she didn't want to get married and promised Nick that she will just live with him forever, which caused Nick to think that Shelly is not interested to guys until she got interested in Jay. That also caused the over protectiveness of her grandfather. Jay saw what happened and chased the thieves to get her purse back. She refused on taking him to the hospital but Jay refused. She picked up his student ID that had fallen to the ground and, motivated by her encounter with Jay, called her grandfather, asking him to let her attend Sunny High School. Her second meeting with Jay was in their classroom. She kissed him out of the blue and the gossip that Shelly and Jay were in a relationship quickly spread around the school.


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